Thursday, July 21, 2016

An attempt to put the polling in perspective with regard to Bernie Sanders

I happened upon this article, "That’s the pattern across the nation.", an interesting account of how little pay many degrees are fetching these days. From the article:
A part-time position after four years (a small miracle that a baccalaureate can be completed in four years at any state school in California — you can’t get scheduled for all of your courses — too few full-time profs — most are adjuncts paid $3k for a 3 credit hour course) obtaining the baccalaureate and another four years to complete the doctoral degree. Eight years of higher Ed, in applied science — and national chains only call the Pharm.D. In to mix up the chemo. As recently as 2006 I had a Pharm.D. with a disability as a client. That client was recruited out of graduate school with a $200k signing bonus!
...
Today we have highly-educated people, carrying the massive student debt that a terminal degree entails, being told they are not worth a full-time job.
A decade ago they had signing bonuses.
Today, they can’t find a full-time job.
That story and millions more like it, represent what we are up against and what we are fighting. Now, even if you have two or three college degrees, it's become very difficult to find a job that would pay off that enormous student debt. Unless you find a way to go into business and make a tidy profit, you're out of luck.

This is what big money in politics is doing to our country. Even if you have a degree to flail at your next hiring manager, six figures will be hard to come by. You'll be lucky if you break $60k. The big money in politics has for years been writing rules that will extract every last cent from the economy and force people to get on the credit treadmill so that they earn money, but never really get ahead and begin to save money.

I know, it's a long digression but I'm just setting the stage. Now for the fun. Check out these polling numbers from Real Clear Politics. First, have a look at favorable/unfavorable. Here's Trump:


Trump has a net favorable rating of -25 (that's a NEGATIVE). Now have a look at Clinton:


Clinton is not all that far behind with a -17 net favorable rating and that score too is negative. These scores are not all that far beyond the historical net favorable averages from many other candidates for president in modern history. Most have been negative. This is what the establishment is dishing up for us, two of the worst candidates in American history.

On the other hand, we still have Bernie Sanders. He's still a candidate and he's still running for president. Of the three, he's the only one with a positive favorable rating:


He has a whopping 11 point favorable rating. But the mainstream media would much rather prepare dog food for us to vote on. Do we want dog food with chicken or beef? That is the question being prepared for us in November.

Well, there's another interesting trend in polling that I think we should all be aware of. We know that Clinton has been losing her lead in the polls. It's been quite a struggle, especially since "the endorsement". Here are the numbers for Clinton v. Trump:


What we see above is that Clinton is holding a thin lead above Trump of less than 3%, which is well within the margin of error for most polls. She does noticeably better in a 4-way poll when we throw in a Libertarian and a Green Party candidate, but she's not storming off towards the White House in that poll, either.

Now have a look at the trend:


Before "the endorsement", she had a strong lead of 11%. Now she's down to 2-3%. Given the trends so far, I don't think she will recover that lead. We're being asked by establishment media to believe that Clinton actually stands a good shot at winning. Even after "the endorsement", the bump that Clinton supporters hoped she would get did not appear. Note that she received Sanders "endorsement" on July 12th. From there on, she can be seen bouncing along the tie line after going negative the day after.

Now recall the story of the degreed pharmacist who can only get a part time job. Imagine a nation of people with degrees and debt who can only get a part time job. This is what Trump and Clinton are selling.

What has Sanders brought to the table? $1 trillion for infrastructure spending. Medicare for all so that there is a public option that we can all use, supported by taxes that would prevent the cost shifting we see now in health care. We see free college education at public universities regardless of income so that when people leave college, they actually have money to pump back into the economy.

I know, Clinton mouthed the words of Sanders on the day of "the endorsement". But as we all know, "She will say anything and do nothing." -- Barack Obama, 2008

For those who think there is no hope at the convention, there is. Sanders is planning a roll call vote for all his nearly 1900 delegates and even Susan Sarandon has helped get them funded. Thousands of people will be there to protest and march in the streets during the convention. Unlike the RNC, Sanders supporters will easily outnumber the press and police.

Even if Clinton is nominated, your vote in November will still count. 88% of seats in Congress are up for election this year. So get out there and vote. Here is a list of all Berniecrats running for office. And don't forget that there is still time to lobby the superdelegates. More than 400 superdelegates declared support for Clinton before the first primary was held. There is no reason we can't try and talk some sense into them before they vote at the convention.

So keep the chin up, sunny smiles, the debate civil and the facts at hand in case anyone should try and talk you into voting for Clinton. Bernie or Bust!
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