Friday, September 21, 2018

A heartbeat post

I'm writing this post just to keep my blog alive. I miss the ease of Blogger, but I don't miss the tiny audiences that Blogger now brings. I don't miss the algorithms that limit my reach. I don't miss the lack of a useful backup, either.

Nowadays, I write my blogs in Markdown on StackEdit, an browser based Markdown Editor. StackEdit makes it easy for me to backup my blogs. Then I past that into my blog at Steemit doesn't have an algorithm that limits my reach like Facebook and Google Plus. I also cross-post at, and as far as I can tell, they don't limit my reach, either.

I don't know what it is, but Medium makes it easy for me to read for an hour if I want to do that. They seem to be thinking bigger at both Steemit and Medium, but at Medium, I can look at my feed and find articles I want to read at the top. Steemit requires a bit more effort to find them, but I can find them.

Anyway, if you want to find my content, I'm there on Medium and Steemit, two places that don't limit propagation based on a political agenda.

Have a great day. :)

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Giving Patreon a try

So I tried Steemit for a year or so. It's interesting, but there is a heavy emphasis on curation and I'm just not that into curation. I'm a writer. I love to write. I love to publish and I love to promote good ideas. As much as I liked it, Steemit required a lot of extra curation work to even get noticed. Sorry, Steemit. I'm just not into curation, yet. 

I have two small kids and soon they'll be in school. Then I can really dig into curation. I really just like to write and publish and see what happens. 

I like blogger for the great user interface and formatting options, but Google is really stingy with pay. Steemit was much better, but there is a lot of relationship maintenance that must happen. It's sort of a nepotism network for writers. I know that sounds critical, but there is a lot of "vote for me and I'll vote for you" stuff going on there. It is fair to say that there is a lot of fellowship going on, but I'm not so sure I want money to be the basis of my friendship on Steemit. That's what it looks like to me, anyway.

I really just want my words to stand on their own. That's it. I find an idea or concept, I write about it, I publish it. Then I do some promotion and see what happens. I'm kind of an agnostic writer. I don't write to make something happen. I write to see what will happen next. Every article is an experiment.

So, I will start publishing on Patreon to see what happens. It's an experiment. Steemit and Patreon may be experiments, but I will always come back here. At least until I find a better way. You can find my Patreon page here:

I hope to see you there. :)

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

To my dear readers, I'm slowly moving to Steemit

I know I haven't been posting much lately. I'm a father and I have one kid who likes to stay up late to read books and play chess. I have another that wakes up at the crack of dawn to find me in the basement, writing. I'm a father and being a father comes first, before this blog and before anything else. When they're awake and I'm not at my day job, I'm a dad first.

So I haven't had much time to read, to research articles and to write them. I've been looking for inspiration to write about and I can find it, but it's tempered by at least one little kid who wants to be with Daddy. Day and night. 

Now there is the realization that I'm obsolete and that everything I do everyday is so that they can have a better life than I have had. Fathers Day just passed. I spent the day working at my job with a rotating shift. No one, other than my Mom, sent me any kind of message wishing me a nice day.

While I do find time for subjects of interest, beyond my fascinating kids, writing is it. I write to live and I do what I can to make sure I find time to write ten things I'm grateful for every day. I write a morning page everyday (from The Artists Way) and often, ideas for my articles spring for there. I write more than a million characters to that morning page every year. I've been writing a morning page since 2008. That means I now have more than 9 million characters just for that alone.

I've learned a few things about promotion on Facebook, Google+ and Twitter. I'm still not very good at it, and for awhile there, I got 78k pageviews in one month. It was nice, but it wasn't very profitable. My wife would surely like to see me make good money at it. But I still have a day job and am looking for a way to transition from that to being a well paid freelance writer. I have a feeling my days are numbered in IT just because of institutional age discrimination. I guess you could say that I'm an old fart in the realm of IT.

I'm a stickler for details, I probably don't do as much volume as they would like me to do. I like to document everything so that I can say, "I did that" when the procedure calls for me to do it. But I'm dedicated and I do find some enjoyment in my day job. I get to work with command line *NIX. I get to run that command line logic I've come to love in *NIX. I'm perpetually fascinated with the way the command relates to the output.

And so it is that I write. I love watching the thoughts come to the fore, and the characters flow onto the screen. I love engineering a sentence just so. To make it say exactly what I want it to say. I love making a point. I love spreading the ideals of peace that are so dear to me now.

For now I have come to a place where peace to me is the understanding that we are all doing the best we can. That personal criticism is to be left for those who are more qualified. I'm learning to discern that in politics, I criticize the idea, not the person. I want ideas that work for everyone, or at least, most of us, rather than a minority interest.

I have come to a place where I know that punishment teaches no skills. I've seen it all the time in social media. People bashing each other, saying hurtful things and thinking that somehow, that is "going to teach them a lesson". All that name calling really does is belie the strength of one's position in a debate. The words that people write are a window to their mind their thoughts. When I see someone trashing another, I see how that person might talk to himself.

When I see one person call another a really nasty pejorative, I think, "Oh, is that how you talk to yourself?" I see someone lost in the world of reward and punishment. The idea is that if we want to reinforce good behavior, we reward it. If we went less bad behavior, we punish it. The problem with this is that humans are far more complex than that.

Humans will take action that they believe to right, without regard to reward or punishment. They will work towards a goal that they have in mind without reward. They will give of themselves without regard to themselves, in order to make someone else better, or give them a better life. The same line of reasoning and experience shows that people will continue behaving badly no matter how awful the punishment may be. Perhaps that is because people who are punished for challenging behavior do not have compassion for themselves, and therefore believe that they "deserve" to be punished.

Regardless of reward and punishment, behavior will not improve unless the skills required to net the reward or curb the unwanted behavior are taught. This is what matters to me, more than anything right now. I've been thinking and writing and researching this for more than a year now, and I just don't see any other way that it could be. If humans want world peace, then teaching the skills to achieve that peace should be paramount.

So let me tell you why I will be slowly moving to Steemit. Steemit is the first social media and blogging site I've seen that takes social media and blogging activity and turns it into cash. Steemit converts every like, every comment, every story, into digital currency called Steem Dollars and Steem Power. Both of these can eventually converted into real money that we use every day to buy things. Steem Dollars are similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are alternative mediums of exchange that are governed by the laws of mathematics, not men.

I have never put a single cent into Steemit. But I have grown my account from nothing to about $140 depending on exchange rates, and that is not with a great deal of effort. That is far more than I have earned with Google. I have squat to show for Twitter and Facebook. There are other sites like Steemit, but for now, I'm going to be there.

Going forward, when I write a new article, I will write it on Steemit and promote it on Google+, Twitter and Facebook. My blog will still be here and I'll post from there on a periodic basis to keep it alive and prevent it from being deleted. But my most current writing will be on Steemit.

Some of you may be asking, "Wait. What about Patreon?" Patreon is nice, but it just seems too complicated for me. I rather like the idea of converting social media action into digital currency that can later be used to buy things. It seems like a natural evolution of social media.

You can find my blog on Steemit here:

You'll find familiar articles there as I've been copying those that I like the most there when I don't have the time to write. There are some that I will always treasure and they will find a new home there. The reason for this is that all Steemit activity is recorded to a blockchain, making it pretty close to permanent. Blockchain is an encrypted, distributed database for recording and verifying transactions. That distributed part means that there is no single point of failure. That's what makes Steemit so appealing to me.

I'll still be around, debating, posting, and commenting, but over time, I will be shifting my efforts to Steemit. I hope to see you there, too.

Friday, June 09, 2017

Skills, punishment and reward, and the war on drugs

After I wrote my last article, Skills, punishment and reward in the context of American politics, I heard a voice in my head talking about the drug war. I could just hear Nixon's voice talking about what he'd like to do to the hippies and the African Americans of the counter culture revolution. And I thought of my own kids and how they should be able to live in a world free of drug violence. My family and I live a life of relative peace and I intend to teach my kids how to do the same as adults.

So I recalled this meme. It was about John Ehrlichman, Nixon's domestic policy adviser. There was a cool quote on the meme, so I looked for the meme but didn't want to spend an hour poring over hundreds of images to find the right one for this article. So I did some more digging and found this article, "Legalize it All", by Dan Baum, in Harper's Magazine and the quote used by so many meme artists:
At the time, I was writing a book about the politics of drug prohibition. I started to ask Ehrlichman a series of earnest, wonky questions that he impatiently waved away. “You want to know what this was really all about?” he asked with the bluntness of a man who, after public disgrace and a stretch in federal prison, had little left to protect. “The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying? We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.”
Baum also dug up a priceless quote by H.L. Menken which is well worth repeating here because it is worth a laugh: "Puritanism. The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy." The drug war was a lie and still is. God forbid that someone should be happy without God, or even on their own motive force.

Decades ago, I read a story about Pete Townsend, a singer, songwriter and guitarist for the band, The Who, in OMNI Magazine. Back then, Townsend was drinking a fifth of cognac a day and shooting heroin and he wanted to stop. Then someone contacted him about a potential solution, "a little black box". Townsend received treatments that involved attaching small electrodes to the skin on his head and passing a small current across his brain. The idea was that the current was at a certain wavelength and amplitude that would induce his brain to release the endorphins that were replaced by the heroin and the booze. After some weeks of treatment, Townsend was unhooked and happier. It was then and there that I realized that my brain is a 2.5 million year old pharmacy.

The Townsend story was well documented and isn't it interesting that the little black box never came into popular use as a drug addiction treatment? Maybe that's because at least one science fiction writer I used to read figured out that the same black box that could get you unhooked from drugs could be the drug. We wouldn't want people figuring out that they could use tiny amounts of current to induce their brains to get high, either. But I digress...

What I find so interesting in the drug war is that the entire effort is based on punishment as a deterrent. Why provide an alternative solution that people can use when a punishment will provide all the motivation anyone will ever need to stay off drugs? Because that would require teaching the skills needed to stay off drugs. Skills?

Happiness is not a destination or even a state of mind. It is a skill. You can experience joy to be sure, and you can do it without God or drugs. In fact, the pleasure people feel on God or drugs depends on the capacity of the brain to produce the endorphins required to generate the perception of pleasure. But it takes skill to get to that place, to establish the context to know you're experiencing pleasure.

It takes skill to go to a church and sing until you're crying with joy just as much as it takes skill to know where to buy the smack, heat it up on a spoon and inject it. Both of them require knowledge, and repetitive experience with anticipation of the reward. But neither can fill empty arms if you lack interpersonal skills to really get to know someone else, or to be of service to someone else.

If you're familiar with the history of the drug war, ask yourself, why those god-fearing people felt it incumbent upon them to punish others for not falling in line and being good citizens? Where does a god-fearing man get the idea that his hands are the right hands to punish other people for their sins? Didn't their conception of god say that, "Vengeance is mine", not a task for mere mortals? Who knew that there are natural consequences to our actions?

As I was writing this article in my head the last few days, I could not help but recall the scenes of torture in the movie, 12 Years A Slave. There is one particular scene that I will never forget, where a white man holding a bible and reading scripture while another white man whips an African woman who knows not why she is being punished. Now I look back on that scene and wonder again, why didn't they teach their slaves the skills they needed to achieve the morality they preach?

This to me, is the essence of the war on drugs. If the war on drugs is about morality, then teaching the skills to achieve that morality would come first. But what followed the war on drugs was a war on education. In the 1950's, 60's and 70's, we had some of the finest public primary education in the world. Then Paul Gann came along to limit taxation in a way that changed the face of California. Since then, the State of California has been mired in huge budget deficits and an ailing public education system. It wasn't just California. Conservatives the land over have worked hard to weaken public education to make way for privatization. The path to privatization of a public service is to weaken it so much, that a private solution seems palatable. Just think Betsy DeVos.

What if the alternative to the war on drugs is to teach skills that kids need to get along with others? Those skills include collaboration, critical thinking and discovery. Those kinds of skills help kids to stay off of drugs, because if you know how to collaborate on a solution to a problem, you know how to ask for help. But that's not what the powerful and elite Christian conservatives want. They want the rest of us to seek their version of a punitive god first, you know, for redemption. Their concept of redemption is what they were taught by their parents, so how would they know any better?

With millions of people in prison for drugs, with their lives destroyed, and future generations starting at a disadvantage, we need to rethink our punitive ways. The failure of the drug war is proof that punishment teaches zero skills. Well, it does teach one skill: obedience. Punishment and threats of punishment have another element that few parents seem to understand: punishment wipes out critical thinking skills.

I know this from my own experience. A young mind juiced up on adrenaline from punishment is not able to think critically about what went wrong, how to ask for help (a parent bent on punishment is not interested in helping their kid, let alone collaborating with him), and is incapable of talking about how to avoid the problem next time the same situation comes up.

One last thing about the whole punishment and reward mentality. If you're a fan of Pavlov, you know that punishment and reward make animals more susceptible to suggestion. The skill missing here is discernment, discernment of the natural consequences to an action. If you're teaching punishment and reward, then making a young mind open to suggestion is what you're doing. That suggestion could come from anywhere, and usually, that is what we call "peer pressure".

Consider the following situation: For years, a couple had been teaching their kids reward and punishment to get them to do what they want, to behave better. But now those kids have friends. Some of them are drinking or popping pills. And now, those kids are thinking, I better do what they do or my circle of friends will punish me. I may lose my friends.

When we collaborate with our kids to solve the problems in their lives they will surely encounter, we teach them to ask for help. When we punish them for their misbehavior, we teach them not to ask for help. I have kids and I want to see them asking me for my help to solve their problems. I'm not talking about solving the problems they encounter for them. I'm talking about collaborating with them to solve the problems they encounter. Then when they are adolescents, I want them to know that if they have any questions about drugs, they can always come to me for help.

The skill of collaboration isn't just for kids. It's for adults, too. Adults who are using drugs to check out don't know how to collaborate enough to avoid using drugs, for if they did, they wouldn't be using drugs. The joy of collaboration is a joy unmatched by any drug. Collaboration is baked into our genes and is the primary tool that has allowed the human race to survive.

Collaboration is the antidote to the war on drugs. Collaboration is the ultimate morality, for when we collaborate together to solve our problems, we will have peace.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Skills, punishment and reward in the context of American politics

Years ago, shortly after the Iraq War began to settle down somewhat, someone had shared video of a adolescent Iraqi boy. He was caught stealing and the punishment was to slowly roll a truck tire over his arm. Back then I could watch such a video and not flinch, but I knew he was going to lose his forearm as I watched that video. I look back now and ask myself a simple question: did that punishment teach that boy any skills beyond learning how to adapt to life with one hand?

While it is easy for some to claim that Muslims are barbarians, it is a fair stretch to say that Americans are any less barbaric. One look at the way our police state has mercilessly killed kids in our streets should give one pause.

In the context of political discourse in social media, I see debates in which some parties seem unable to restrain their urge to mete out punishment upon those they disagree with. Their punishment is laced with profanity, invective and aspersions. I've seen responses completely bereft of facts in what would otherwise be a straightforward discussion and debate of the facts. I've even felt it within myself, the urge to "punish" someone else in social media, but I've held back, let the feelings pass, and cobbled together a reasoned response instead.

In all my interactions with other people, I strive to avoid the urge to punish, for I have gained awareness of what happened to me and how I was punished myself by my parents. I was punished for not having the skills to meet the standards set by my parents. I am learning, in no uncertain terms, that punishment does not teach skills, and just to be clear to those who are fans of Pavlov, reward doesn't teach any skills either.

Every animal has a primary instinct to preserve oneself. Every animal has a primary cause and that is to stay alive. Animals, humans included, stay alive by meeting their needs. therefore, every animal action can be traced to a primary cause: meeting needs required to stay alive. Readers familiar with my work here on this blog already know that that I'm a fan of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, here's a sample below:

A basic guaranteed income in the context of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Prison reform in the context of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

The conflict between good and evil in the context of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

In the intervening months and weeks since I wrote those articles, I've been slowly refining this concept to reduce it to the simplest explanation for all human suffering when it is caused by human beings, and sometimes when its just mother nature. In every case, it boils down to the same statement: Humans suffer when they lack the capacity to respond adaptively to their environment. 

No longer do I make the assumption that evil exists for the sake of evil. No longer do I assume that the 7 deadly sins exist just because. The root cause in all actions by human beings is to satisfy an existential need. Whether or not we can satisfy that need without hurting others depends on the skills we possess.

For example, I'm watching House of Cards, quite possibly some of the best political drama I've ever seen on any screen. While it would be easy to say that Francis and Claire Underwood are evil and without conscience, we still don't know why they are evil. Yes, Mr. Underwood is consumed with a thirst for power, leverage and control, but after 5 seasons, we still don't know why he's like that. The writing in this show is so good that I forget what I'm thinking about with human needs most of the time. I don't know what is going to happen next and that's why I continue to watch. Even now, there is a part of me that wants to see how the Underwoods will slip away, unscathed, if they do.

When I started writing about this business of good and evil, I had come to the conclusion that there is no such thing as good and evil. Good and evil are supernatural explanations for cooperative and challenging behavior in human beings. There is a continuum of people. On one end there are the confused - those we might call "evil" and the less confused - those we might call "good". All of us are seeking to meet existential needs.

Since the election of Donald Trump, I've watched social media and I can tell you, the catharsis is so thick, you can cut it with a knife. On and on, the memes (pictures with captions) just get more and more insulting to Donald Trump and others within his power circle. I get the catharsis, I really do, but I fail to see how those memes will influence the policy debate in a positive fashion, particularly for progressives seeking a meaningful discussion with those in power now. I can assure you that criticism doesn't teach any skills. I know. I've tried it from both ends and it doesn't work.

When I see Donald Trump announce that "we're going to pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate" for "a better deal", I see a man who has not articulated the need for a better deal. Who will get a better deal? America? Against 194 countries who have already signed and will go forward without us? I see a man who told us that with Obamacare we must come up with a better plan before replacing Obamacare, but has no compunction to pull us out of an agreement on climate without offering a better plan, first.

When I saw the news reports of Donald Trump bragging about groping women, I see a man who has everything he wants and still wants more. At the time that he bragged about groping those women, he was already fabulously wealthy, yet he is still not satisfied with who he is as a person, so he must degrade someone else. And somehow he still managed to get elected.

When I see how Donald Trump fired James Comey and expressed dissatisfaction with Jeff Sessions, I see him bringing his Apprentice character to the White House. I see him bringing all the drama that he loves to the White House. And I wonder, what need is he trying to serve?

I offer these examples not as criticism of Donald Trump. I offer these examples to show that even with fabulous wealth and power, it requires a certain amount of skill to appreciate that wealth and be satisfied with it, to know when enough is enough. In America, we are being trained to idolize the wealthy, as if somehow they need it. I suspect that some of the wealthy need fans, for our media would not idolize wealth unless the wealthy media owners wanted that to happen.

What I see is that money, power, beauty, or whatever, are very poor substitutes for interpersonal skills. If you lose that power, you're going to need to find a way to get along with others who watched you abuse it. If you lose that money, you're going to need to negotiate for your next meal. If you lose that beauty, then you will need to hone up on your conversation skills.

The primary human skill, the one that made humans one of the most successful mammals on the planet is cooperation. Set aside for a moment the enormous ecological damage we have done to the planet, for it's a safe bet that natural selection does not favor animals that degrade the environment they live in, and walk with me down this path. A path to world peace and survival of those who know how to cooperate.

Cooperation is baked into our genes. We know this because we have language. Language provides the most efficient means of communication between animals of the same species. Language allows humans to cooperate for their mutual safety, and allowed culture to follow, to blossom.

When we cooperate, we use language to collaborate, to share ideas, to help each other. A basic human instinct is to help others, even if there is no apparent and immediate reward. Somewhere at the base of our brains, we know that the person we help now might save our skins later, but we don't know for sure, so we work together. This is one reason I make a point never to burn bridges, to always leave the door of communication open. I can't help it if the other person does it, but I will always remain open to talking again.

I have had the time to think through revenge and punishment and have learned that revenge is never sweet, so I avoid situations where that might even come into play. I err on the side of peace every day. I have thought through punishment and have figured out that punishment, like reward, doesn't teach any skills. The only skill that punishment and reward teach is obedience. And as Don Henley famously said in his song, The Heart Of The Matter, "pride and competition cannot fill these empty arms". No amount of achievement can replace interpersonal skills, or to put it differently, love.

Donald Trump represents to me, the ultimate American schism, that we can reward ourselves out of misery, that we can punish others with impunity for our own personal relief and gratification. I say this without disrespect to Mr. Trump, for he is only doing what he has learned to do. I am forever an optimist. I believe that if Mr. Trump, and every other human could, they would do better. Everyone wants to do well, to do better than before. 

All of what you see here has been extrapolated after reading many books on suffering, recovery and relationships. I have looked long and hard to make sense of human suffering, for I too, have suffered and wanted relief. I believe that we can put humanity on the path to world peace by teaching our kids the skills they need to live in peace. These skills are learned, not bought. They are taught through innumerable acts of collaboration with our kids, and everyone we come into contact with everyday.

We can have peace by raising human beings.

Thursday, June 01, 2017

Trump is the pied piper for the GOP on the debate over health care

Remember how the DNC and Hillary Clinton's campaign elevated Trump and a few other candidates as "pied piper" candidates? Politico documented their effort in great detail here, quoting a campaign memo:
“The variety of candidates is a positive here, and many of the lesser known can serve as a cudgel to move the more established candidates further to the right. In this scenario, we don’t want to marginalize the more extreme candidates, but make them more ‘Pied Piper’ candidates who actually represent the mainstream of the Republican Party,” read the memo.
“Pied Piper candidates include, but aren’t limited to:
• Ted Cruz
• Donald Trump
• Ben Carson
"We need to be elevating the Pied Piper candidates so that they are leaders of the pack and tell the press to [take] them seriously."
Who remembers the story of the Pied Piper of Hamelin? I happened upon the Pied Piper story a few months ago while reading bedtime stories to my kids. As you will see below, that story kind of stuck in my head and it took me some time to put two and two together.

The story goes that a town was infested with rodents (just think elite GOP for this article) everywhere and no one knew how to get rid of them. Then one day a man with a pipe showed up and offered to remove the rats for a certain fee. The town council, in their excitement at the prospect, offered 1000 gold pieces even though they did not have it.

The pied piper played his music and walked. The rodents followed him as he played. Then he stopped at the side of a river where the mesmerized rodents made a turn into the river where they all promptly drowned.

Could Trump be that kind of man for the GOP? I think so. Consider that for the duration of their quixotic quest to repeal Obamacare, members of the GOP have returned home to conduct town halls only to face angry, hostile and frightened constituents. Most of that anxiety stems from uncertainty about health care, and more specifically, Obamacare.

The GOP has been having a hell of a time trying to figure out how to repeal it with very little luck behind them and ahead of them. Trump has told all of us that unwinding Obamacare is incredibly complex. From the New York Times:
President Trump, meeting with the nation’s governors, conceded Monday that he had not been aware of the complexities of health care policy-making: “I have to tell you, it’s an unbelievably complex subject. Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated.”
This is an open admission that repealing Obamacare is going to take a lot more time and effort than Trump anticipated. It gets better from here. Governors from around the country want to avoid losing coverage for the people that have already found it under Obamacare, further adding to the complexity. Even Ohio Governor John Kasich has little enthusiasm for the repeal effort. They know that if they lose coverage, they lose votes.

And then Trump said that Congress must deal with Obamacare first before they can go after tax reform. From the same NYT article cited above:
Because of the intricate procedures that govern budget legislation and the inherent complexity of health care, Republicans appear unlikely to undo the health law as quickly as they had hoped. Mr. Trump said Congress must tackle the Affordable Care Act before it can overhaul the tax code, also a high priority for Republicans. And those delays could slow work on other priorities like a trillion-dollar infrastructure push.
Trump has been creating a legislative logjam for enthusiastic Republicans in Congress who can't wait to "do the people's business". To get to what they really want to do though, they're going to have to repeal and replace Obamacare without losing any coverage for the people who have it (though lately, Trump appears to waiver on letting people lose coverage). Trump is clear that he also wants to shift spending priorities to the military, also from The New York Times:
President Trump put both political parties on notice Monday that he intends to slash spending on many of the federal government’s most politically sensitive programs — relating to education, the environment, science and poverty — to protect the economic security of retirees and to shift billions more to the armed forces.
This will further restrict the ability of the GOP to grow the economy. What Trump is pursuing for cuts are peanuts compared to the military and social safety net programs, which are funded by their own distinct taxes. An obscure economist who goes by the name of "Dean Baker" provided some interesting analysis of the same NYT article including this nice tidbit:
The claim that Paul Ryan is concerned that these programs would "swallow the bulk of government spending" directly contradicts everything Paul Ryan has been explicitly advocating for years. Ryan has repeatedly put forward budgets that would reduce the size of the federal government to zero outside of the military, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. (See Table 2 in the Congressional Budget Office's analysis.) It is difficult to understand how a major newspaper can so completely misrepresent a strongly and repeatedly stated view of one of the country's most important political figures.
So Ryan wants to reduce the federal government to nothing but the military and and the most popular social programs? What a surprise. So do many other Republicans. Suppose Trump let's them have their way? I can just imagine the blowback from Main Street America on the spending cuts alone. And the really odd thing is this: no amount of tax cuts are going to grow the economy. We've tried it. During the last decade, taxes were at their lowest ebb in modern history and we still got the Great Recession.

Trump seems to be dramatizing his role as president. Whatever he does, it's going to be extreme or make him appear stupid or incompetent, or to contradict himself. Whether it be cuts to social programs, or how he conducts himself with other leaders, I see the liberal press painting Trump as a buffoon. Here is a short list of recent fumbles on the part of Trump that have been offered by the press to confirm their narrative:
He touched an orb in Saudi Arabia [Trump criticized Obama for the same thing], met the Pope and became a meme, got snubbed by Macron and pushed aside the Prime Minister of Montenegro.
The other six world leaders managed to play nicely posing for a group photo in front of their respective flags after a brief walk.
Trump was late - because he couldn't manage to walk 700 yards (that's about a third of a mile or 640 metres) to take the photo.
From foreign policy fumbles to domestic gaffes, Trump is proving to be one of the most unpopular presidents of modern times, and now its starting to show in the polls. The debate over health care has been a major case in point. Millions of Americans across the political spectrum are filled with anxiety to the point of agitation, and they are now starting to mobilize for single payer health care, according to In These Times:
In early April, a public radio program in the Rust Belt city of Rochester, N.Y., spent an hour discussing healthcare—but not, as you might expect, the GOP’s attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare. It focused instead on the brightening prospects for a single-payer healthcare system. The guests included a Trump voter and small-business owner, Tim Schiefen, and the co-chair of the Rochester chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), Karen Vitale. What was remarkable was how little they disagreed. 
Asked his opinion of single-payer, Schiefen responded that it was worth exploring. “The problem is putting the foxes in charge of the henhouse,” he said. “Why are we allowing these gross, overspending health insurance companies … to administer this stuff?” 
Increasingly, the single-payer solution is generating that sort of consensus across ideological and party affiliations. In early April, an Economist/ YouGov poll showed that 60 percent of respondents supported a “Medicare for all” system, including 43 percent of people who identified as conservative and 40 percent of Trump voters. 
The energy behind single payer is partly a result of the GOP’s success in pointing out the flaws in Obamacare, then failing to offer a workable alternative. Vitale believes that, in a paradoxical way, it’s also driven by Trump. 
“I think Trump broke open a lot of things,” says Vitale, who grew up in a rural small town an hour south of Rochester. She says that the Trump voters she knows trusted his populist pitch— and “now they’re activated, and they’re acting from a place of self-interest. You can’t put them back in the box.” When Trump breaks campaign promises, she predicts, “They’re going to notice really quickly. They noticed with Trumpcare.” 
Takeaway: In the state of New York, a member of the Democratic Socialists Party of America and a conservative business owner who voted for Trump both agree on single payer health care. And they both agree that Trump has made a promise to enact a replacement for Obamacare that doesn't lose coverage. Both are mindful of this promise and both want a solution that works for everybody. And both will take action if Trump breaks his promise.

Trump may not be able to keep his promise if plaintiffs in a court challenge to Obamacare subsidies prevails. If the plaintiffs prevail, the subsidies will be lost and the costs of individual insurance plans will rise by 19% or more next year. According to CNBC:
A federal district court judge had previously ruled in favor of House Republicans, who in 2014 sued over billions of dollars in payments to insurance companies under the Affordable Care Act because they had not been granted via a congressional appropriation. The Obama administration appealed the case, and the Trump administration asked to put the case on hold while it established its position on the matter.
The matter is now in appeals court and while the Obama Administration sought to defend the subsidies, Trump appears to be changing course. Note here that House Republicans sued to have the subsidies declared illegal for lack of a Congressional appropriation. They may be right, but it might cost them dearly in 2018 when people go to the polls to decide if Congress represents their interests.

Even if Obamacare is not repealed, the mobilization of voters will get serious if voters who use Obamacare find their bills went up because of Republican indifference to their cause. There is a high probability that insurance companies will sense the unease and raise prices for everyone else, too. We're already starting to see signs of that mobilization in local races here and there. Progressive Democrats are starting to win in jurisdictions where Trump won. The UK Independent has taken notice of a small race in New York:
In the 9th Assembly District, mere miles from Mr Trump’s birthplace in Queens, New York, Republicans hold a 13-point registration advantage over Democrats. But Ms Pellegrino – who served as a delegate for Bernie Sanders at the Democratic National Convention – pulled off a striking upset this week, beating her Republican challenger 58 to 42 per cent.
“We worked hard. I don’t know what happened,” her competitor, conservative Tom Gargiulo, said.
How did they do it?
“Bold populism that puts working families’ issues front and center,” Bill Lipton, state director of the Working Families Party, said on Tuesday. “This is how we win in Trump country. This is the lesson for Democrats around the country.” 
There is another part to the story of the Pied Piper. After he lured the rats out of town and to their untimely demise, he asked to be paid, as I would expect of Trump. When the piper came calling, the town could not pay, so the piper played again to take the children of the town with him.

This is about to happen to Trump, but probably not in the way that he had planned. Polling analysis by shows that Millennials are very unhappy with Trump and they are organizing, too. Millennials perceive Trump as an illegitimate president by a wide margin and they show little if any love for our two party system, so blithely assumed to be a "democracy":
Overall, only 22 percent of young adults approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 62 percent disapprove. GenForward polls further show that across all racial and ethnic groups the majority of millennials disapprove of Trump. With 71 percent of African-Americans and even 55 percent of whites against him. They are overwhelmingly negative on his policies and his demeanor.
Those who study millennials knew that even if Trump pulled out a win in 2016 “his insular appeal to his preponderantly white coalition has exposed the party to a clear long-term risk.” As the Atlantic reported before the 2016 vote, “Win or lose, all evidence suggests Trump is further alienating a Millennial generation that is already cool to the GOP — and is poised to become the electorate’s largest cohort in 2020.”
Trump may have been the Pied Piper for the GOP, but he may also become the Pied Piper for the Millennials who are not happy about their prospects as a result of the "I, Me, Mine" generation that voted for the Reagan Revolution.

Lest Democrats get too happy about their prospects resulting a Trump presidency and a GOP gone wild, they had best prepare for campaigns based on “Bold populism that puts working families’ issues front and center". If Democrats fail to heed the message, they may find themselves facing a progressive insurgency the likes of which they have never seen before, with the largest voting demographic behind it, the Millennials.

Saturday, May 27, 2017

A bizarre explanation for the high cost of health care in the land of austerity

The hysteria over Trump's budget has been mounting for weeks. There is nothing in the news but deep, deep cuts to everything except the military. And even then, some say that we're not spending enough on the military - never mind that we spend more than the next 6 to 12 countries combined (depending on the source you choose to read). It may be awful to watch, but the debate has subtext.

Lately, most of the focus has been on the Affordable Care Act (aka, Obamacare) and the American Health Care Act. Most of the press has been given to the Republicans and their surreal opinions on the state of health care. Naked Capitalism has a very good shortlist of some of the untruths Republicans are brazen enough to speak, which you can read about in full detail here. I've reduced it to a short list here for your review so that we can explore then in some detail from a different perspective:

  1. The poor don't want health care and the fact that they have such poor lifestyles proves it.
  2. The people who are healthy pay for the sick.
  3. Men shouldn't have to pay for prenatal care for women.
  4. People who lead good lives do not get sick.
  5. No one dies due to lack of access or coverage.
  6. People who don't take care of themselves don't deserve health care or insurance.
That is a short list of talking points that Republicans have made about the current state of health care. The first thing we should notice, as the Naked Capitalism article notes, is the complete absence of science. There is no scientific or empirical evidence backing up these outrageous claims. They are all judgments on the people who suffer the most from the current crisis of health care.

Since Congress is 91% Christian and 99% of Republicans in Congress are Christian, we can infer that according to some members of Congress, "God is punishing those who are sick, so lets pile on". So sorry for the 1st Amendment. I also note with interest that as far as I know, there has been nothing provided in the budget to teach people the skills they need to stay healthy. Even if they did, people who have the skills to lead a healthy life can still get sick and they can still have accidents. Perhaps they did not see or hear of Carl Sagan with his brainy quote: "Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception." I guess that's a bit much for people who believe in an afterlife.

From the faith of some members of Congress, we can also infer that "sick people should not be rewarded, they should be punished". I'm still thinking about the 1st Amendment here. Can we also infer that some in Congress believe that they are "doing God's will"? If so, there needs to be a healthy and public discussion of just what "God's will" is. Who knows what God's will is? I sure don't and I doubt anyone in Congress really knows. Given the immense egos of the people in Congress, it would be easy for them to conflate their own will with God's will.

Somewhere in their Good Book, God said, "Vengeance is mine". That would seem to mean that it's not up to those in Congress to decide who gets to live and who gets to die. I think I'll go with Gandhi, "An eye for an eye and the whole world is blind".

So from what we can see, we have members of Congress constituting a majority, preaching a faith, and being unwilling to use federal funds to teach the skills necessary to "deserve" health care. Are those poor people who are so undeserving of health care really contributing to the high costs of health care? I don't think so. As one member of Congress put it, "the poor will always be with us", and they always have, so the poor can't really be used to explain the high cost of health care.

Our health care costs were in line with the rest of the industrialized world for much of modern history until sometime around the Reagan Administration. Economist Dean Baker has some interesting numbers to share with us, and a nice little chart he got from the OECD:

Notice how American health care costs were fairly close to other industrialized countries for at least 10 years since they started collecting data in 1971. Notice also, how health care costs in the United States diverged in 1981. Hmm. Isn't that around the time of the Reagan Revolution? I think it is.

In Baker's article he had this to say about the costs of health care:
The reason our health care costs have risen so much more rapidly than anywhere else is not Baumol's disease. Health care is a service everywhere, not just in the United States. The difference stems from the fact that doctors, insurers, drug companies, and medical equipment makers are far more capable of controlling the political process in the United States than in these other countries. They use their political power to restrict competition and get government subsidies. As a result, these actors are able to secure massive rents that come out of the pockets of the rest of us.
Rent seeking? Really? Since the poor have always been with us, it can't be them. It must be the changes in public policy made during the Rent Seeking ... I mean, Reagan Revolution. Doesn't it seem odd then, that no Republicans are talking about this development in our history and what we can do to reverse those changes?